Asteroid 2024 YR4, a recently discovered near-Earth object, has garnered significant attention due to its potential collision risk with Earth. Discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile, this asteroid measures roughly equivalent to half the width of a football field.
Potential Impact and Risk Assessment
As of early February 2025, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) assessed the likelihood of an impact on December 22, 2032, at approximately 1.2%. This translates to a roughly 99% chance that the asteroid will safely pass Earth during its close approach. The asteroid’s trajectory places it within about 106,200 kilometers (66,000 miles) of Earth, which is considered a close encounter in astronomical terms.
Dr. Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies, emphasized that while there is a slim chance of impact, ongoing observations are critical to refining the asteroid’s trajectory and size estimates34. The current risk level categorizes 2024 YR4 as a Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating it warrants attention but does not pose an immediate threat.
What will happen if Asteroid 2024 YR4 collides on Earth?
If asteroid 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, it could produce significant localized damage. Depending on its size and speed—estimated at 17 kilometers per second (approximately 38,028 miles per hour)—the impact could create an airburst or an impact crater with blast damage potentially extending up to 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the site. Such impacts are rare; asteroids of this size typically collide with Earth only once every few thousand years.
Monitoring Efforts
Following its discovery, automated systems flagged Asteroid 2024 YR4 for further observation due to its potential risk. Astronomers have since utilized multiple telescopes globally to gather data on the asteroid’s characteristics and trajectory67. As it moves away from Earth after its close approach in late December 2024, it will become increasingly difficult to observe until its next close pass in December.
The ongoing monitoring efforts are crucial as they may lead to changes in the assessed impact probability. History has shown that many asteroids initially deemed a threat later had their risks downgraded as more data became available. For instance, similar scenarios unfolded with asteroids like Apophis, which was once thought to be on a collision course but was later ruled out.
